When you win at something one time it can actually make you lose often later on. This is because winning once can make you feel really good about yourself and the things you do. You might start to think that you are better at things than you really’re
The problem, with this is that you can become overconfident. You start to think that you can win all the time so you do not try hard as you should. Winning once does not mean you will always win. You have to keep working and trying your best if you want to keep winning.
If you do not try hard and you just expect to win you will probably lose. This is because the other people you are competing with will be trying really hard to win. They will be. Getting better so you have to do the same thing if you want to stay ahead of them.
Winning once is not a guarantee that you will win again. You have to keep doing the things that helped you win the time. If you stop doing those things you will probably start to lose. So you have to stay focused and keep trying your best if you want to keep winning. Winning once is the beginning and you have to keep working hard if you want to be a winner.
There is a moment that happens after you get a win. I am not talking about the celebration part. I am talking about the part that comes after that. When you walk away, from a win you feel like you are walking taller you feel sharper. You feel like you can do anything. This is because the result went the way you wanted it to so you think your judgment is good. You think your timing is right. Yu think the system is finally working for you and that is a feeling when you are winning.
That feeling is where the trouble starts. It is a problem that people have to deal with. The trouble that comes from that feeling can be really bad. That feeling is what gets people into trouble in the place.
A single victory can really shake things up more than a loss. Losing hurts,. It keeps things real. When you win it can be confusing. You start to wonder if you are really good, at something or if you just got lucky. It is hard to tell if you did something right or if things just worked out. When people talk about doing after a big win or getting stuck after one success they are not talking about suddenly developing bad habits. They are talking about how success can affect your mind when it happens fast. The victory can make you think you are better than you really are.
The psychology behind one win
Most people believe that motivation increases after you win something. This is true sometimes. But usually something different happens first: you start to feel certain. You feel certain that you have found the way to do things. You feel certain that your next move will also be successful. You feel certain that the things that helped you win will keep on happening with motivation and success and motivation and success will keep on coming because of certainty, about motivation.
Psychologists have spent a time studying this pattern. When we win at something it is like a shortcut, for our brains. Wins make it easier for us to make decisions. We do not double check our work much as we used to. We start to trust our instincts more. We feel like it is okay to skip some steps that we used to think were important.
The thing, about success is that it can be an illusion. Sometimes it feels like we have really earned it even when we have not really done enough to deserve it. Success is something that can feel good when we have only done a little to achieve it.
Overconfidence: the silent killer of progress
Overconfidence bias does not announce itself. It rarely seems like you are being arrogant when you are thinking about it. It feels like you really understand what is going on. You trust your understanding of situations than you used to. You make decisions faster. You explain what happened with stories. Overconfidence bias feels like clarity. It makes you trust your read on situations.
The Dunning Kruger effect is really important here. This is when people think they are better at something than they actually’re after they have a little bit of success. If you win once that is all it takes to make you feel really confident.. The truth is, one win is not enough to really know what you are doing. You have not seen the Dunning Kruger effect in action with situations yet. You have not tried the strategy and lost. The Dunning Kruger effect is also, about not trying things when they are difficult. You have not tested the strategy with really tough situations, which is a big part of the Dunning Kruger effect.
When things are going well overconfidence starts to sneak in. You begin to ignore the rules that kept you safe in the past. You stop taking notes and writing down details. You focus on the things that make you feel good of the things that actually helped you succeed with your approach. The thing is, overconfidence, with your approach can be really bad. As time goes on you have less room to make mistakes with your approach.
The hot hand fallacy is something that people think is real. It is not. The hot hand fallacy is when people believe that someone who is doing something well will keep doing it just because they are on a roll.. The thing is, the hot hand fallacy is actually a myth. The hot hand fallacy does not really exist.
The hot hand fallacy is often used to talk about sports, like basketball. People think that a player who is making a lot of shots will keep making shots because they have a hand.. The truth is, it is just luck. The hot hand fallacy is not a thing.
When we win people usually think that things will keep going our way.. That is not always true. The hot hand fallacy makes us believe that we are doing well because we are good not because we just got lucky. We feel like we are on a roll so we try harder. The hot hand fallacy is a problem because it makes us think that our success is not just because of chance. We start to think that we are really good, at something and that is why we are winning.. Sometimes it is just luck. The hot hand fallacy and momentum are related because they both make us think that what happened before will happen again.
People who play sports, like athletes will take shots that have a chance of going in. Traders will put money into something they think will make them more money. Managers will say yes to projects that’re more likely to fail. Gamblers will bet money after they get lucky because they think they have figured out the game. They believe they can win every time with the athletes taking percentage shots and the traders increasing position size and the managers approving riskier projects and the gamblers raising bets after a lucky spin.
What is happening is really simple: the brain mistakes what has happened recently for signs of what will happen. This is similar to confirmation bias. You remember when you won. You do not think about the times you almost won but did not. You create a story where the brain thinks that the timing and your talent are the reasons, for everything that happened with the brain and the recent outcomes and the brain.
When you win one time it can really set you up to lose. You see a single victory can make you feel like you are doing everything right. You start to think that you do not have to try hard because you already know what it takes to win.
This is what happens when you have a victory. You become too confident. You stop paying attention to the little things that helped you win in the first place. A single victory can make you lazy. It can make you lose focus.
For example imagine you are playing a game and you win one round. You might think that you are really good at the game and that you do not have to practice.. The truth is, you need to keep practicing if you want to keep winning. A single victory is not enough to make you a winner. You need to keep working and staying focused if you want to achieve your goals.
So a single victory can actually be a thing if you let it go to your head. You need to stay humble and keep working even when you win. This is the way you can really achieve success and become a winner. A single victory sets you up for loss because it can make you feel too confident and it can make you lose focus, on what’s really important.
One big win does not mess up your life. It is what happens after that one win that can really cause problems for you.
The danger is not winning. It is what happens after we win when the things that keep us safe like rules and limits are slowly taken away. The danger is not the victory itself it is the change, in how we behave after we win when these safety measures, the guardrails quietly come off.
Things can get too comfortable. We start to feel okay, with how they are and that is when complacency creeps in. We stop trying to make things better because complacency creeps in and makes us lazy. Complacency creeps in when we think everything is fine. There is no need to change or do anything else.
Complacency is rarely laziness. It is misplaced efficiency. People stop doing the parts because these tasks feel redundant. The thought is that you already know this information. So you skip reviews of the material rehearsals of the task and simulations of the process. Complacency makes you think that you do not need to do these things because you already know them.
In sports teams that just won a championship usually do not do well the next season. This is not because they forgot how to play sports. The reason is that the hard work and routine of playing sports feels different to them now. They do not feel like they have to win much as they used to. The teams that won a championship the championship teams do not have the desire to win that they had before. The championship teams feel different, about playing sports.
In business when a company has success the people who started it often make the mistake of hiring too many people too quickly or trying to grow the company too fast. They might also try to move into areas of business before they have a good handle on what they are already doing. This is not because they think they are better, than everyone. It is because they feel relieved that things are going well. This feeling of relief can make them think that they do not have to be as careful and disciplined as they were when they were first starting out. The companys early success the relief that comes with it makes discipline feel like something they can do without. The founders of the company and early success are closely tied to this problem.
Risky decisions post-triumph
When we have success it makes us think that things are not as risky as they really are. After we win at something losing does not seem bad even though the chances of losing are still the same. Success does something to our minds. It makes us stop worrying much about losing. When we are winning we do not try hard to protect what we have. We get a little careless with our success.
The prospect theory is what explains this change, in behavior. When people feel like they are using the prospect theory and they have money that’s not really theirs they are more likely to take risks. If someone using the prospect theory wins once it changes the way they think about money. They feel safer because of the prospect theory so they decide to bet money when they are using the prospect theory.
This is what happens when you fall into the winners curse outside of auctions. The winners curse makes you pay much for the next good thing because the last one turned out okay. You start to accept deals that do not make much money as you would like. You begin to tolerate things that’re not as good as they should be. Then the winners curse catches up with you and things go back, to normal. The winners curse will always affect the winners curse in the end.
The win lose cycle is something that we see in our lives.
Real world examples of the win lose cycle are around us.
For instance when one person gets a job that means someone else does not get that job.
This is an example of the win lose cycle.
Realworld examples of the win lose cycle happen in sports, where one team wins and the other team loses.
We see real world examples of the win lose cycle in business too where one companys success can mean another companys failure.
Real world examples of the win lose cycle are very common in our lives.
Some other real world examples of the win lose cycle include things, like elections, where one person wins and the other person loses.
We also see real world examples of the win lose cycle in our relationships, where one persons gain can mean another persons loss.
These are a few real world examples of the win lose cycle.
You do not have to look far to see the pattern of the thing that is happening. The pattern is the same in different industries and it is the same for people with many different skill levels and it is the same, in many different cultures. The pattern repeats over and again.
There are sports teams that did bad after they had a big win.
Some teams just fell apart after they won something
The sports teams that crumbled after a win are very interesting to look at.
- They were, on top of the world one day
- Then they were really bad the day
The sports teams that crumbled after a big win are a good example of how things can change quickly.
The sports teams that crumbled after a win did not do very well after that.
They had a win and then they just stopped playing well.
The sports teams that crumbled after a win are a reminder that you have to keep working hard to stay on top.
When a team wins a championship they often have a time doing well the next year. This is called a championship hangover. It happens a lot. The team that won the championship will struggle to play well as they did the year before. People who study sports say that injuries, to the players, a tough schedule and plain bad luck are reasons why this happens. These things are important.. The psychology of the team is also important. The championship hangover is a thing and it affects the teams performance. The team that wins a championship has to deal with the psychology of winning a championship.
Players who just won something often take it easy during the off-season. They do not work hard as they used to. Coaches also think that what worked before will work again. They do not change their systems.. The other teams have been watching and learning. They come back stronger. The champions are not as sharp as they were before. The champions show up to the game a bit off. The champions are the ones who have to be careful because the other teams are ready, for them.
When you get one win it really changes the environment around you. Everyone else is going to react to that win. If you do not react to your win then you will fall behind because the win is a big deal and people are going to notice the win. The win is what gets everyones attention.
Business leaders’ post-success pitfalls
The history of startups is full of stories where one big win leads to a fall. A new product is. It becomes really popular. The company makes a lot of money really fast. The press starts talking about it. The people who started the company think that all this attention means their idea is great of taking a step back and being careful. The founders of these startups see the product launch going viral the revenue spikes and the press rolling in. They think this is proof that their startup history is, on the right track but really it is just a moment to slow down and think about what is happening with their startup.
Companies do not focus on making their operations better. They try to get bigger. They do not try to help their customers more. They just add things to their products. The things that made the company successful in the place are lost when they try to do it again. The customer support and operations that made the company win are forgotten under all the pressure to keep winning. Companies, like these do not improve customer support they just add features.
You see this happen to even really experienced bosses. They think that because they were successful in the past that means they made decisions.. Really they were just lucky. So when they make decisions now they do it quickly. They talk about it loudly. They do not ask questions or listen to what other people have to say. This is a problem because decision making for the company should be careful and thoughtful not fast and loud. Experienced executives like these should be curious about what’s going on and try to learn from the people, around them.
The emotional whiplash after winning
Wins also change how we feel when we fail. When we are successful it feels really bad when things do not go as planned. We start to think that we should always win. Our sense of self becomes tied to whether we succeed or fail at something. This is where people sometimes start to feel like they’re not good enough even when they are and that is really surprising.
You start to get really scared that people will find out the truth. You worry that the time you won was luck. This fear can make you act in a way that’s too safe. You do not make the moves that you need to make.. You try too hard to show everyone that you can do it again that your win was not just a one time thing. You try hard to prove that you are good, at the game or whatever it is that you are doing.
The first. The second response both create instability. This means that the first response and the second response are not good. They make things unstable. The first response and the second response are the problem.
There is also the sunk cost fallacy that is happening. People get really emotional, about the person they think they are when they are winning. They hold on to things that they think will help them keep winning even when it is clear that they need to do something. They keep using the strategies that are tied to the person they think they are even when it is not working out. The sunk cost fallacy is really affecting the way people think about the version of themselves who is winning.
To really make a change we have to break the cycle. This means finding ways to keep winning and not going back to how things were. We need to think about strategies that will help us sustain our wins. Breaking the cycle is not easy. If we can find the right strategies we can make it happen and keep our wins going. Strategies to sustain wins are very important because they help us keep moving and not fall back.
The main thing is to break the cycle and then find ways to sustain our wins. We have to keep working at it and not give up. Breaking the cycle and sustaining wins is a process that takes time and effort. We have to be patient and keep trying.
Some strategies to sustain wins include:
- making a plan and sticking to it
- getting support from others
- taking care of ourselves
- staying positive and focused on our goals
By using these strategies we can break the cycle. Sustain our wins. It is not going to be easy. It is worth it. We just have to keep trying and not give up on breaking the cycle and sustaining our wins. Breaking the cycle and sustaining wins is the key, to making change and achieving our goals.
To stay away from the triumph trap you do not need to give humility speeches or be falsely modest. What you really need is a system that helps keep feedback honest even after you have achieved something. The system should keep the feedback clean after you have been successful with something. This way the triumph trap will not be a problem, for you and your systems will keep on working.
There are some things that really work when you are actually doing them in life.
- When the team gets a win we should think of it as a clue that helps us not as the answer to everything. We are talking about a win and this win is, like a piece of a puzzle. So we should treat every win as something that gives us a little information, rather than thinking that this win is the complete proof that we need. Every win is important. We should use it to learn more about what we are doing and how we can do it better.
- I think it is an idea to run post win reviews that focus on what nearly failed with the project not just what worked well with the project. This way we can learn from the things that nearly failed with the project and make sure that the things that nearly failed with the project do not happen again in the future. We should look at what failed with the project and figure out how to improve it so that the things that nearly failed with the project will work better next time. By doing this we can make the project better and make sure that the things that worked well with the project will continue to work well with the project.
- It is an idea to lock in the pre defined rules before you have a lot of success because success can change how you feel about taking risks so you should lock in these pre defined rules before success changes your appetite for risk.
- separate identity from outcomes by tracking process metrics consistently
- You have to think that things will be different, in the future so you should make a plan that can change with the Digital Marketing conditions not do the same Digital Marketing things over and over again. The Digital Marketing conditions will probably change so you need to be ready to adapt your Digital Marketing strategy.
These aren’t motivational slogans. They are operational safeguards.
Build humility into your success routine
Humility is not about making your achievements seem smaller. It is, about wanting to learn more after you have done something well. The people who do the jobs make a point to slow down after they have succeeded. They ask questions that’re not easy to ask. They want to hear what people who disagree with them have to say. The best performers do this because they want to stay humble and humility is what helps them keep doing a job.
This is why some top teams have a person they call a “devils advocate” after they win big. The job of the devils advocate is to find problems with the story of what happened while people are still feeling really good, about it.
Cognitive diversity is really important when everything is going well with the company or the team or the project. It is, during these times that cognitive diversity matters the most because it helps the people in charge of the company or the team or the project to make decisions and think of new ideas. Cognitive diversity is what makes this happen.
Set systems, not just goals
When we think about goals we usually think about the outcomes we want to achieve. But systems are different they reward the behavior we show every day. If we only focus on winning all the time we will probably end up giving up stability just to get things done faster. This is not an idea because stability is important, for the goals we want to achieve with our systems. Goals and systems are. We need to think about how our behavior affects the outcomes we want from our systems.
Good systems can handle things when they do not go as planned. These systems make it difficult for people to become too sure of themselves and make decisions. They also make sure that people think carefully about what they’re doing even when they feel very confident about it. Systems, like this create problems when it is necessary which helps people make decisions. Good systems do this they make people slow down and think.
The idea is that Daniel Kahnemans work is about this. He did some research. It showed that when things are not clear and we have just succeeded at something our intuition is not very good. We think we know what is going on. We do not really know. The solution, to this problem is not to try to have intuition. The solution is to have a system in place. Daniel Kahnemans research makes it clear that we need structure.
Why losing early can be an advantage
When you experience losses on you learn a lot faster than when you have early wins. The thing about losses is that they show you where you are going wrong without making you feel too good about yourself. Early losses make you want to learn and get better before you start thinking you are already perfect at something. This is important because when you have wins you might think you do not need to change or learn more about the game or the sport or whatever it is that you are doing.. Early losses are like a wake up call. They tell you that you need to work and learn more about the game if you want to get better at it. So early losses are actually a thing because they teach you a lot about yourself and, about what you need to do to get better. Early losses teach you that you need to keep learning and working hard if you want to succeed.
People who do not succeed at first usually become more aware of what they can do. They understand that the progress they make can be very easy to lose. So they make sure they have a plan. They know that things do not always go as planned with the people who fail early. The people who fail respect that things can be different each time.
That does not make losses pleasant. It makes losses informative. Losing is not fun. It can teach us something. We can learn from our losses.
The thing about winning is that it can actually make you worse at things if you stop paying attention to what’s going on around you. When you lose it helps you stay honest with yourself. People who are successful for a time are the ones who think of winning as something that makes them ask questions, like what can I do better next time instead of just thinking they have all the answers.
If there is one thing to keep in mind it is this: the moment you feel the safest is often when the risk is the highest. The win lose pattern does not hurt people who try to do things. It hurts people who’re too comfortable and think they are confident when they are really not. The win lose pattern is tough on people who’re complacent not on people who have ambition. The problem is when people mistake being comfortable, for being confident that is when the win lose pattern can be really bad.
The goal isn’t to avoid winning. It’s to survive it.
